https://notanotherdatabase.com/chat/i/xaYkGX1abFdwIwQIrpIcRQpw

First, I still don’t see much evidence that the AI trade itself is slowing down. South Korean semiconductor exports jumped 259.4% year over year during the first 20 days of September to a record $34.1 billion. Another pretty crazy number showing how strong demand across the semiconductor supply chain still is.

The part I think is getting more interesting now is how all of this gets funded.

Goldman put out a good report last week. The idea is that the amount of money being spent on AI infrastructure is starting to eat into hyperscaler free cash flow, while companies are increasingly tapping the debt markets to keep funding the buildout. At the same time, governments are borrowing heavily too.

Goldman recently raised its forecast for U.S. investment-grade issuance this year to a record $2.3 trillion, with AI-related issuers accounting for roughly a quarter of that supply.

I don’t take that as the AI trade being over. Far from it. I think it just means money isn’t free anymore, and the market is probably going to become much more selective about which companies are actually getting a return on all of this spending.

That also makes the massive move into bonds worth watching. Roughly $625 billion has flowed into U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs through August, the strongest January-August pace since the data began in 2010.

When investors can get around 5% in parts of fixed income, equities are competing with something they really haven’t had to compete with for most of the last decade.

Rates are still the obvious risk here. After last week’s Fed hike, futures were pricing roughly a 53% chance of another 25bp hike in October, with the probability of at least one additional hike before year-end around 90%.

The yen has also stayed surprisingly weak even after the BOJ hike, with USD/JPY around 157 and intervention back on the radar.

None of that changes my longer-term view on AI, but it does make me want to be more selective about where I put size.

Yesterday’s Flow

HUT worked very quickly yesterday, moving roughly 8% from the open. This was one of the names showing a big multiple of normal bullish activity under the Unusual Bullish Activity section of the Flow Intelligence tab.

That’s one of the things I like about that view. Instead of only looking at how much premium went into a name, it compares the activity against what is actually normal for that stock.

I have another version of this being added to the database as well, hopefully this weekend.

USAR

Posted this one in the chat yesterday:

RISK REVERSAL BULLISH - $USAR 4000 18C/14P EXP 11/20/26 Avg Fill .70

Roughly a $280K debit.

Rare earths and critical minerals are already in focus this week with U.S.-China discussions, and USAR has had a lot going on lately.

The company completed its combination with Serra Verde earlier this month, broke ground on its South Carolina rare-earth metal and magnet facility, and also announced a partnership with Pasqal and Riven Systems focused on using quantum computing and AI in critical-mineral production.

IBRX

This was probably the most interesting individual trade I saw:

CALLS BOUGHT - $IBRX 6869 11C EXP 1/15/27 Avg Fill 1.70

About $1.17M in premium.

The expiration is what caught my attention.

ImmunityBio has a January 6, 2027 PDUFA date for the supplemental ANKTIVA application seeking an expanded indication in BCG-unresponsive papillary bladder cancer.

These calls expire January 15, just nine days after the FDA date.

Obviously biotech around an FDA decision is binary, but when I see a $1M+ trade with an expiration sitting right after a known FDA catalyst, it’s worth paying attention to.

KVYO

There was also repeat buying in the same strike:

CALLS BOUGHT - $KVYO 4902 17.5C EXP 11/20/26 Avg Fill 1.12

CALLS BOUGHT - $KVYO 2047 17.5C EXP 10/16/26 Avg Fill .55

Roughly 7,000 contracts between the two expirations.

Klaviyo just held its K:BOS conference earlier this month and announced a large batch of product updates around autonomous agents, personalization models, its data platform, and eventually voice.

The November expiration is the one I find more interesting. Klaviyo hasn’t officially announced its next earnings date yet, but based on its normal schedule the report is expected in early November, meaning the November 20 calls should carry through earnings if that schedule holds.

Going to keep an eye on whether buyers come back.

CPRI

CALLS BOUGHT - $CPRI 5493 15C EXP 10/16/26 Avg Fill 1.26

Another 504 contracts at 2.00 in the same strike and expiration.

Almost 6,000 contracts total and roughly $793K in premium.

Link to the database:

https://notanotherdatabase.com/chat/i/D2xeWnWrCQ7RM2oV6rW1Hy-6

The CPU post from over the weekend worked out pretty well. ARM +17%, INTC +12%, and AMD +10% today. Nice to see that trade play out this quickly.

The raw tape is also live now and should be fully up and running tomorrow. Still a few things being worked on, but it’s coming together nicely.

META’s move today shouldn’t be much of a surprise either. I’ve posted many times on X that I thought META should be a lot higher, and said last week that if Dario and Anthropic wanted to play games with slowing down AI, META would be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

META was also one of the top flow names in the database today.

One thing I think a lot of people overcomplicate is trading. You can trade some of these huge names, even the Mag 7, with size and do very well just waiting for the right setups. You don’t need to be chasing some random small cap every day.

Just look at INTC today. Another name I’ve been saying to buy on the dips, and it was getting blasted with bullish flow throughout the past week.

A lot of what I do really isn’t that complicated. Look at where the flow is going in quality names, do some research on the company, compare the current activity to what that name normally sees historically, and wait for the setups where everything starts lining up. Those are the trades I’m much more comfortable putting real size into.

Then every now and then we can take a little more risk on something like HUT.

HUT was actually the number one name for unusual bullish activity in the database today. The chart backs up the flow too, with the stock breaking out of its recent range. I’ll likely be adding a position in this one.

A more unusual one, which I was actually DMing with T about on X, is GFL.

There’s been some interesting accumulation in the November calls, and the timing is worth paying attention to. Bloomberg recently reported that there are competing groups looking at taking GFL private. KKR, Energy Capital Partners, and Blackstone are reportedly bidding together, while Brookfield and IFM have put together a competing bid.

The CEO has also said he’s open to taking the company private at a higher valuation. Nothing has been announced yet, obviously, but when you have an active take-private process in the background and start seeing accumulation in further-dated calls, it’s at least something worth keeping an eye on.

Anyway, here’s today’s link. See you all tomorrow.

I’m leaving this one open for 24 hours this time.

Also, try out dark mode if you haven’t already. Much nicer to look at early in the morning.

https://notanotherdatabase.com/chat/i/ZLXGft6Ezxd7bh3sgOoCGDna

Everyone has obviously been focused on GPUs for the past few years, but CPUs could end up being a much bigger part of the AI trade than people thought.

BofA recently raised its estimate for the server CPU market in 2030 from around $170B to over $210B, compared with only around $35B in 2025.

That’s a massive jump. The reason is AI agents.

For AI training, you needed roughly one CPU for every four GPUs. BofA thinks with AI agents that could eventually get closer to 1:1.

And when you actually think about what these new agents are doing, it makes sense.

Instead of just asking an AI a question and getting an answer back, these agents can actually do things for you. They can browse the internet, execute code, access databases, use different tools and basically operate a computer on your behalf.

All of that requires CPUs.

Meta’s new Muse is a pretty good example of where this could be going.

Muse is basically a personal AI agent that can actually perform tasks for you. But the part I found really interesting is that every Muse runs inside its own dedicated secure virtual machine in the cloud, with its own browser.

Basically, every agent gets its own little computer to work from.

Now imagine where this goes over the next few years.

Instead of someone opening ChatGPT and asking it a question, you could eventually have billions of people with agents constantly working in the background.

And I doubt it stops at one agent per person.

You could have one doing research, another shopping, another handling emails, another working with files, etc., all running at the same time.

That is a ridiculous amount of compute.

And this lines up pretty well with what $AMD has been saying recently.

AMD has talked about seeing more CPU demand from agentic AI because all of these agents need CPUs for things like orchestration, database access and actually using tools.

So I started looking at which names could benefit the most from this.

$AMD is probably the obvious one.

BofA has AMD as its preferred CPU name, and AMD itself is already talking about increased CPU demand coming from AI agents.

Then there’s $ARM, which I think is pretty interesting too.

A lot of the next generation of server CPUs are being built on Arm architecture, including Nvidia’s Vera CPU.

And funny enough, there was some interesting flow in $ARM on Friday too.

804 $ARM 380P 3/19/27 were sold at an average fill of $15.40, around $1.2M in premium.

I like those put sales. They’re pretty far out and a decent amount of premium. Obviously doesn’t mean the stock has to go higher, but I like seeing that kind of trade in a name I’m already looking at.

Then you have $NVDA.

I don’t think CPUs doing well means GPUs suddenly become less important. If anything, I think the better way to look at this is that AI is just going to require a LOT more compute than people originally thought.

Nvidia can still benefit from that. BofA still has it as its top overall semiconductor pick, and Nvidia’s Vera CPU is itself built on Arm architecture.

And then there’s $INTC.

This one is interesting for a couple reasons.

BofA specifically mentioned Intel’s foundry opportunity. If CPU demand actually gets anywhere near these numbers, Intel doesn’t have to suddenly take over the CPU market for it to matter.

And there was some pretty good flow in $INTC on Friday.

3,520 $INTC 95P 2/19/27 were sold at an average fill of $9.95, around $3.5M in premium.

There were also:

500 $INTC 150C 6/17/27 bought at $13.50, around $675K in premium.

I like those 95P sales.

That’s $3.5M in premium on puts going all the way out to February. Someone is clearly comfortable taking the other side down there.

So I don’t really look at this as CPUs replacing GPUs.

I think the easier way to look at it is that the AI compute pie could just get much bigger.

First we had training.

Then inference.

Now we’re moving into agents that can actually use computers and do work.

If we eventually have billions of these things running around in the cloud, potentially multiple agents for every person, that’s going to require an insane amount of infrastructure.

And the timing of all of this is interesting because sentiment around AI has completely changed over the past few months.

Citadel Securities put out a good note this week.

Retail semiconductor activity on their platform is now 46% below the June peak, while opening bullish options premium is down 45%.

Leveraged semiconductor AUM has basically been cut in half from the June peak, and a lot of AI infrastructure names are now down 30-55% from their highs.

Pretty big change from a few months ago when everyone wanted anything with AI attached to it.

Citadel still thinks the rest of September could be messy.

Buybacks are going into blackout, systematic funds still have exposure they could sell, quarter-end rebalancing could create more selling, and roughly $7T of US equity options exposure expired Friday.

But here’s what I found interesting.

The weaker things get into the end of the month, the more constructive they’re becoming.

A lot of the leverage has already come out, positioning has been cleaned up quite a bit, and people clearly aren’t chasing semis like they were a few months ago.

Citadel basically thinks we could still get some weakness through the end of September, but they’re comfortable using more weakness into month-end to add back to core longs.

I tend to think something similar.

There are definitely AI names that got way too expensive, and obviously not every company with an AI story is going to be a winner.

But I definitely don’t think the AI trade is over.

If anything, watching how quickly these agents are improving makes me think we’re still pretty early.

A year ago, most people were just typing questions into a chatbot.

Now we have agents getting their own virtual computers and actually doing things for us.

Imagine what these things look like a few years from now.

And imagine how much compute is needed if everyone has multiple agents running 24/7.

GPUs aren’t going anywhere. CPUs might just end up being a much bigger part of this than people thought

NVDA AMD ARM INTC

QUICK DATABASE UPDATE

Also, quick update on the database.

We’re adding a raw flow tape, which should hopefully be live Tuesday.

So along with everything already in the database, you’ll be able to see the raw options flow coming through too.

Will post when it’s live.

Here are the Top Bull/Bear Flow from yesterday:

A few trades from yesterday that stand out. MIR and TEM are the top two names in the unusual activity section: the MIR January 20/25 call spread bought, and the TEM January 85/105 call spread, ten thousand a side.

MAT is well off its highs and someone is trying to catch the bottom there.

On the bearish side, CLDX puts are the one to watch.

Open interest cards are up in the chat. Link is below, see you in there.

https://notanotherdatabase.com/chat/i/tK1VL5fDmu6SiyacgC1VwOlM

I’ve only shipped a few of the features so far. I wanted to get this out first, see how it goes, and ship the rest later.

How the database works

Charles Corner

This is the home page and the first thing I want you looking at before the open.

The top row is the count of what changed since the last close: names with flow, upgrades, downgrades, initiations, headlines, insider buying. Below that is the previous session’s flow, split into calls bought, puts sold and puts bought, biggest first. Those three columns are the whole story of the day in about ten seconds.

Under that is the part I actually built the page for. Every ticker gets ranked by how many separate things are lining up on it at once. A name with a rating change, an earnings catalyst and heavy call buying all in the same 24 hours sits at the top. A name with one thing going for it sits at the bottom. The chips tell you which pieces are there so you don’t have to click through.

Chat

The chat is where the flow shows up during the session.

Every entry reads the same way: the direction, the ticker, the size, the strike, the expiry and the average fill. Sweeps and blocks are tagged. The premium is right there under it.

Some entries carry a third tag, Over OI. It means the contract has already traded more today than the open interest it started the day with.

Click the ticker on any entry and you get that name’s whole book in a pop out, with the bullish and bearish premium totalled at the top. There’s a View chart button on it that takes you straight to the ticker page.

Before the open there are four cards waiting in the chat. Three are open interest movers, large caps, mid caps and small caps, the contracts where the most positions opened and closed overnight. The fourth is called Carried into open interest. It’s yesterday’s entries that never got the Over OI tag, in contracts where open interest still rose overnight by at least the size that printed.

The right side is your own thread. Ask for a contract, a chain or open interest on a strike and you get it back in the thread.

Your thread is also how you reach me. Type anything that isn’t a request and it comes straight to me, and I answer you there. If you’d rather get a reply outside the room, type your email into the thread once and I’ll have it.

Flow in the chat runs on a 15 minute delay for members. The morning cards don’t.

Flow Intelligence

This is the ledger going back to the start of 2023. Sixty one thousand entries and counting.

The top reads the day’s net positioning in one word, then the premium behind it. Below that are the filters. Direction, minimum premium, how far out of the money, sector, date range. You can exclude ETFs and index products, call sales, rolled positions, earnings names or multi-leg trades with one click each. The timeline under the filters is the entire history, so you can click any day and drop into it.

The block I look at most is the conviction streaks.

A streak is the same name getting the same direction of premium on back to back sessions. Three days is the minimum to show up.

Then the largest bullish and bearish flows side by side, and premium by ticker for the day with the bull and bear premium drawn against each other.

Search

Type a ticker and you get every print on that name, newest first, with the bullish and bearish premium totaled at the top.

This is the one I’d use before touching any name. Two hundred plus prints on NVDA in the past year and you can see the lean of the whole book in the first row of numbers.

Laggards

Every million dollar plus buy that’s now trading below where it was bought.

Entry price, current mark, the discount, and the open interest before and after so you can tell whether the position is still on, got added to, or got closed. That last column matters. A call trading at half the entry price with open interest still holding is a very different thing from one where the open interest is gone.

Screener

Presets over the ledger so you don’t have to build the same filter every morning. Opening conviction, whale single-leg, downside bets, long-dated conviction, near-dated urgency, positioning into earnings. Pick one and it runs against the whole book, with ETFs, rolls and spread legs already stripped out. Or build your own and save it.

Research

A couple pages under Research filtered so you only see what’s important.

Insider buys. Open market purchases only.

Material filings. 8-Ks graded by what’s actually in them, and 13D activist filings kept separate from the passive 13G ones.

Every ticker has a page

Click any symbol anywhere on the site and you land here. In the chat the click opens the pop out first, and View chart brings you here.

Relative strength rank, the 52 week change, performance against SPY, the bull and bear flow totals, and the implied move into the next expiry. A one year daily chart with drawing tools and indicators, plus the weekly and the monthly. Then the flow, the insider buys, the filings and the news for that one name, all on one page.

What’s next

There’s more already built. A good amount. I wanted to get this out first, see how it goes.

Here’s a link:

https://notanotherdatabase.com/chat/i/BsZENCr-chz3zTNYb7yBBbrf

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