September 21st: Flow Recap

Flow Recap

Good afternoon all.

The CPU post from over the weekend worked out pretty well. ARM +17%, INTC +12%, and AMD +10% today. Nice to see that trade play out this quickly.

The raw tape is also live now and should be fully up and running tomorrow. Still a few things being worked on, but it’s coming together nicely.

META’s move today shouldn’t be much of a surprise either. I’ve posted many times on X that I thought META should be a lot higher, and said last week that if Dario and Anthropic wanted to play games with slowing down AI, META would be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

META was also one of the top flow names in the database today.

One thing I think a lot of people overcomplicate is trading. You can trade some of these huge names, even the Mag 7, with size and do very well just waiting for the right setups. You don’t need to be chasing some random small cap every day.

Just look at INTC today. Another name I’ve been saying to buy on the dips, and it was getting blasted with bullish flow throughout the past week.

A lot of what I do really isn’t that complicated. Look at where the flow is going in quality names, do some research on the company, compare the current activity to what that name normally sees historically, and wait for the setups where everything starts lining up. Those are the trades I’m much more comfortable putting real size into.

Then every now and then we can take a little more risk on something like HUT.

HUT was actually the number one name for unusual bullish activity in the database today. The chart backs up the flow too, with the stock breaking out of its recent range. I’ll likely be adding a position in this one.

A more unusual one, which I was actually DMing with T about on X, is GFL.

There’s been some interesting accumulation in the November calls, and the timing is worth paying attention to. Bloomberg recently reported that there are competing groups looking at taking GFL private. KKR, Energy Capital Partners, and Blackstone are reportedly bidding together, while Brookfield and IFM have put together a competing bid.

The CEO has also said he’s open to taking the company private at a higher valuation. Nothing has been announced yet, obviously, but when you have an active take-private process in the background and start seeing accumulation in further-dated calls, it’s at least something worth keeping an eye on.

Anyway, here’s today’s link. See you all tomorrow.

I’m leaving this one open for 24 hours this time.

Also, try out dark mode if you haven’t already. Much nicer to look at early in the morning.

https://notanotherdatabase.com/chat/i/ZLXGft6Ezxd7bh3sgOoCGDna